2012 is coming, we're all gonna die...or not

[BinCo]

So we went to see the new Harry Potter movie and we saw a preview for a new movie about 2012 with John Cusack. The CGI looks pretty intense. In a nut shell, most of us are gonna die. New York and LA get wiped out, Pat Robertson will say it's because of our tolerance of gays :-0 The world goes to hell in a handbasket. Unless you know of the top secret US government ship (can you say ark) that is launched to try to save humanity.

Should be worth a few bucks and a bag of popcorn. It's entertainment for entertainment's sake.

Harry Potter was most excellent. If you are a big fan, like us, you will notice many details missing that will lead to more ideas about the next movies and what they are removing from the plot. They also added a few things that we didn't care for, because they are not true to the books.

We went to see Chichen Itza this spring for the spring equinox, google it if you need to. Those Mayans certainly knew a thing or two. So, is 2012 a very real possibility for a major shift in the world as we know it today? That year seems to come up in more than a few places around the globe, or do people look for connections that are not there?

[walter05]

Given the current economic crisis, the threat of terrorism, North Korea with missiles and nuclear weapons, etc. there are times when I think 2012 is optimistic.

[BinCo]

I think 2012 is optimistic.
:rofl:
Now, that's funny.

[richo]

2012 is simply the next stage in the Mayan calendar - similar to us rolling from 999 to 1000. It has no significance beyond that.

The movie looks interesting, if not exhausting - they're basically taking every natural disaster movie ever made and rolling them up into one, and blaming it on the alignment of all the planetary bodies (which I don't think it scheduled to happen at all, though there'll be a major one in 2060).

Harry Potter was great but depressing - and I'm really not looking forward to how dark they have to make the first half of the last book (since they're splitting Deathly Hollows into two movies).

[JoseO42]

The movie 2012 is based on the Mayan Calendar that mentions the end of an age that is scheduled for December 21, 2012. Notice that it mentions the end of an age. The Mayan calendar is based on observations that certain events occur on a particular cycle. The Mayans were obsessed with time and used a detail calendar to record events. It seems that based on the calendar certain events occur on a cycle and one of those cycles is supposed to end on 12-21-2012.

What that means is speculation. You could have a possible doomsday event like a comet hitting the earth and making life difficult at best. You could also have a dawn of enlightenment where mankind finally wakes up and learns to live in a peace with each other and focuses on things to improve the quality of life here on earth.

There are various viewpoints on Youtube if you wish to watch. Just put 2012 in the search field of Youtube and be prepared for a variety of interpretations and predictions.

[Naturist Mark]

The movie 2012 is based on the Mayan Calendar that mentions the end of an age that is scheduled for December 21, 2012. Notice that it mentions the end of an age. The Mayan calendar is based on observations that certain events occur on a particular cycle. The Mayans were obsessed with time and used a detail calendar to record events.
The Mayan calender(s) were based on many different natural cycles. They distinguish one cycle from the next by its relationship to other overlapping cycles - think of weeks and months - not aligned to each other and of different lengths. The two main cycles used are 260 days (Tzolk'in) and 365 days (Haab), which repeat with respect to each other every 52 years - known as the calendar round - which was sufficient to identify any date within a lifetime, but not for longer periods.

As a solution, they utilized what was called the Long Count, which numbers each day from the putative Mayan day of creation - August 11, 3114 BC. In practice, the Mayans used only a 5 digit date for any day in the long count, using a modified version of base-20 numerals those 5 digits cover a span of approximately 5125 years, meaning it would have to start over again on December 22, 2012.

However, even the Mayans understood that more digits could be used if needed, it just wasn't customary. Saying that the Mayan calender ends in December 2012 is like saying our calendar ended in the year 999 because we couldn't conceive of using a 4th decimal.

[marko486]

I just figured the one who spent most of his life carving the calender out of stone said one day "screw this, I am going home", and thus the end of the Mayan calendar was born.

[Fitz1980]

Any individual calender will have an end unless it's one of those computer programs that can calculate indefinitely backward and forward.

The thing that I find most humorous about this whole 2012 thing is that people want to believe that a civilization that died out 1,000 years ago must have known about something destined to happen 2,000 later; something that we don't see coming with our modern technology.

[MoonShadow]

LOL Fitz. How true. The Mayan calendar was obviously projected on the calendar they use for the duration of their existence. Pretty clever of a group, actually.

There are many theories on the Mayan Calendar ending in 2012 but the general consensus among those who study it think it is about the end of an era; not the end of the world.

[walter05]

I can believe that they knew a lot we don't.

We have a lot of arrogance to think we know better than them.

We can't even predict next week's weather.

[MoonShadow]

LOL Walter.

Yes, it is a card game when it comes to predicting the weather, I must say.

There are many ancient civilizations that had incredible insight. The Mayans were one such group which I think were very astute about the study of nature with its cycles and patterns. Ancient Egypt and Rome had some very intellectual individuals who used their minds to come up with some magnificent architecture, watering systems, and warfare strategies.

[MoonShadow]

The Mayan calender(s) were based on many different natural cycles. They distinguish one cycle from the next by its relationship to other overlapping cycles - think of weeks and months - not aligned to each other and of different lengths. The two main cycles used are 260 days (Tzolk'in) and 365 days (Haab), which repeat with respect to each other every 52 years - known as the calendar round - which was sufficient to identify any date within a lifetime, but not for longer periods.

As a solution, they utilized what was called the Long Count, which numbers each day from the putative Mayan day of creation - August 11, 3114 BC. In practice, the Mayans used only a 5 digit date for any day in the long count, using a modified version of base-20 numerals those 5 digits cover a span of approximately 5125 years, meaning it would have to start over again on December 22, 2012.

However, even the Mayans understood that more digits could be used if needed, it just wasn't customary. Saying that the Mayan calender ends in December 2012 is like saying our calendar ended in the year 999 because we couldn't conceive of using a 4th decimal.


Yes, a clever group, indeed. Unlike so many who came long after them.

[Fitz1980]

I can believe that they knew a lot we don't.

We have a lot of arrogance to think we know better than them.

We can't even predict next week's weather.

We can't predict next weeks weather but we understand weather because there are too many variables, but we can still predict the weather better than in any time previously. We also understand planetary alignment, the germ theory of disease, geology, archeology and biology.

[walter05]

Fitz1980;

The Farmer's Almanac was as or more accurate 200 years ago.

Native Americans understood the weather in their areas quite well. They also understood better what native American animal behavior indicated about the weather.

We are arrogant and foolish to think we know better.

[Arnabas]

I know a large number of people withing the pagan/ new-age community who believe that it signifies the dawn of a new consciousness. I would like to think so, too. If enough people believe in something like that, maybe we'll be able to make it come true.

Would be nice if 2012 was an end to the old world of clothes. :) Starting 2013: nudity is mandatory! :P

[Fitz1980]

The Farmer's Almanac was as or more accurate 200 years ago.

Not even close to true.

The latest Old Farmer's Almanac is out with its usual boast of being 80% correct. But are they really that good? From what I have seen in past years their accuracy is much, much worse than advertised! How about this year?

This study found that the national regional forecast for Winter had both the temperature and precipitation correct only about 13% of the time and Summer forecast was correct just 6% of the time.

The California forecasts for temperature were right only 13% of the time and the precipitation was correct 27% of the time.

http://ggweather.com/farmers/2005/index.htm


Oh and how much warning does the almanac give about when and where hurricanes will hit? I'll stick with the national weather service on that one.

[walter05]

Fitz1980;

I am not against technology. There are times when we do know things that the ancients maybe did not. After all, they could not see a satellite image to know a hurricane was even coming.

However, animals seem to often have warning when a storm is coming. If native Americans were able to understand their behavior better, they might have had better warning.

I remember being in Houston when Hurricane Rita was predicted to hit. People died in the evacuation due to a false alert.

I was in the Hurricane Floyd false evacuation with most of coastal Georgia and northeast Florida.

I am glad for warnings when we get them. However, we have no way of knowing if ancients in America had better warning from the animals and their knowledge of nature or not. This is because arrogant whites wiped out their civilizations and cultures along with the knowledge.

The NOAA website is changing the forecast for weather every few hours. To compare a weather forecast that changes every few hours with an annual forecast is not a fair comparison.

The long term Farmer's Almanac forecasts are probably as good or better than NOAA's.

Walter

[Naturist Mark]

The long term Farmer's Almanac forecasts are probably as good or better than NOAA's.

NOAA's forcasts are 100% accurate!

They are always given with percent probabilities, so anything can happen and they are still 100% correct.

[marko486]

NOAA's forcasts are 100% accurate!

They are always given with percent probabilities, so anything can happen and they are still 100% correct.

Exactly.. We are light years ahead of where we were, but, yes there is much to learn still. I was reading a recent article about long term forecasts of 30 days out they are starting to do, but even there they have to do % of chance the further out it is. The whole chaos theory comes to play when you are that far out and there is so many variables. It is hard to wrap your head around some of the theories like where a butterfly flaps it's wings in south america causes tornado in the states is one of the analogies in chaos theory. The computer modeling continues to get better and better but there is still the "everyone talks about the weather, but no one does anything about it" thing.

[LamontCranston]

I am not against technology. There are times when we do know things that the ancients maybe did not. After all, they could not see a satellite image to know a hurricane was even coming.

...

I am glad for warnings when we get them. However, we have no way of knowing if ancients in America had better warning from the animals and their knowledge of nature or not. This is because arrogant whites wiped out their civilizations and cultures along with the knowledge...
I like those shows where the archeologists/scientists/engineers try and figure out how the ancients built a pyramid or assembled the tightly fit columns in Rome or moved the Stonehenge rocks miles and stood them up. We collectively assume the people are smarted or cleverer or more intelligent these days. I sometimes think we're just noisier.

And the decline of "their civilizations" (whichever/whenever you refer to) was more to do with small pox than it was "arrogant whites," although you won't ever find me defending the Union blue coats' actions during the 1850's - 1890's in the American western frontier.

As for "This Is The End" by James Morrison topping the charts again in 2012? I guess I'm not so worried about my 401(k) balance anymore. :D

[usuallylurk]

I think this is another Y2K scare - foisted upon us by people who want to sell us freeze-dried foods, gold and silver, underground storage tanks, weapons, survivalist crap.


BOO!

[richo]

I like those shows where the archeologists/scientists/engineers try and figure out how the ancients built a pyramid or assembled the tightly fit columns in Rome or moved the Stonehenge rocks miles and stood them up. We collectively assume the people are smarted or cleverer or more intelligent these days. I sometimes think we're just noisier.

And the decline of "their civilizations" (whichever/whenever you refer to) was more to do with small pox than it was "arrogant whites," although you won't ever find me defending the Union blue coats' actions during the 1850's - 1890's in the American western frontier.

As for "This Is The End" by James Morrison topping the charts again in 2012? I guess I'm not so worried about my 401(k) balance anymore. :D

The problem with trying to understand how ancient civilizations did things is that we are biased with what we're looking for.

The pyramids are a great example. Nowadays, to build something like that, we'd mix concrete, build molds, and cast the "stones" in place. But we *know* concrete didn't exist back then and that the Egyptians were "primitive", so archeologists look at these structures and try to fathom what amazing knowledge they had to cut the stones so precisely and move them across the desert.

Well, guess what - they were smart, alright, but not how we thought. They cast the stones out of a kind of liquid limestone, using mold they'd built on the spot and basically a bunch of buckets. Chemical analysis of the "stones" in the pyramid show they're far too homogenous to be natural.

In essence, because we assumed one thing, we had to jump to astonishing conclusions to justify it.

I think the Mayans probably had a great grasp of their area - the flora and fauna, the general weather cycles, what warning signs they could see, etc. We know they built Tulum as a lighthouse, for example, which was only realized by the Spanish when a captain stopped thinking of them as "dumb natives" and started thinking of them as competent.

Do I think they had knowledge that the world was going to end, or something? No. They're just as human as the rest of us. They didn't even know the right length of a year (360 vs 365.25). They did remarkably well with what they had, but they had far less than what we have now.

There are thousands of mythologies out there, with tens if not hundreds of thousands of predictions. By sheer odds, some of them will corellate to some actual events, but that doesn't mean they have useful predictive power. We have a natural tendancy to allow the guilt over the past actions of "civilization" against indiginous groups to taint our perspectives and try to make them better than us. It's survivor's or victor's guilt, rooting for the underdog in a way, and like most emotional respones, it results in irrational thinking.

I like the Mayans. I've been to ruins like Ek Balam, which are amazing. They did extremely well with the limited technology and information they had, and in many ways were better adapted to their natural environment than we are today (since they didn't have many options). I don't think that gave them supernatural powers to predict the future, however; none of the other predictions they've made have had any significance, so the 2012 one likely doesn't either. They were just a dying civilization that had the unfortunate luck to get overrun by the Europeans.

[Fitz1980]

Here's Penn & Teller's take on the end of the world.

<a href="http://vids.myspace.com/index.cfm?fuseaction=vids.individual&videoid=9182939">Penn and Teller - Bull****! - End of the World</a><br/><object width="425px" height="360px" ><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"/><param name="wmode" value="transparent"/><param name="movie" value="http://mediaservices.myspace.com/services/media/embed.aspx/m=9182939,t=1,mt=video"/><embed src="http://mediaservices.myspace.com/services/media/embed.aspx/m=9182939,t=1,mt=video" width="425" height="360" allowFullScreen="true" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" wmode="transparent"></embed></object>

Good stuff, when I hear "2012 is going to be the end of the world" I hear "Y2K is going to be the end of the world" or one of thousands of other nuts who thought that they knew when the world was going to end and were wrong.

[walter05]

Richo;

You have a very thoughtful post.

I do want to correct one thing though. You said, "Do I think they had knowledge that the world was going to end, or something? No. They're just as human as the rest of us. They didn't even know the right length of a year (360 vs 365.25). They did remarkably well with what they had, but they had far less than what we have now."

A solar year is 365 days.

The moslems have a strictly lunar calendar that is less than 365 years. This is because the moon goes around the earth in 29.5 days and a strictly 12 month lunar calendar comes to 354 days.

The Jewish calendar is a complicated lunar calendar with leap year adjustments on a 19 year cycle to keep it in synch with the solar year. This is done so that Passover will always be in the spring as scripture commands.

It could be that the Mayan calendar was counting different events. The different lengths meant more to them and therefore, the calenda was correct and not in error. It may not be that they did not know the length of the solar year, they may not have cared. After all, in Central America, seasonal differences are not as great as in the U.S., Europe, or the Middle East.

I don't believe the world will come to an end in 2012 either. I don't think the ancients did either.

Computer people in the 1950s, 1960s, 1970s, and 1980s knew about Y2K and it was coming. Yet the computers were not ready to include it. This was a convenience choice. I suspect the Mayan calendars ending at that time is for the same reason. The Y2L comparison of yours was very astute.

[David77]

Reminds me of the following;

!). Solar calendar made by the Cahokia Mounds ancieints.

2.) the Stone Henge in the UK, a solar calendar.

See video about the Wood Henge and Stone Henge.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=quJttLkyBS8

3.) Jesus believed that the end of the world, "day of judgement" was near, so the things of the earth, such as marriage, was not important.

4). Kooks have pronounced the end of the world from time to time and have gotten rid of everything, but when the end of the world did not materialize, they were left with nothing.

[usuallylurk]

And here's another thought to ponder ---

If the Mayans were so damn smart about the future, where are they today?

[LamontCranston]

3.) Jesus believed that the end of the world, "day of judgement" was near, so the things of the earth, such as marriage, was not important. No parts of this sentence have a basis in Scripture or Tradition.

[maliakei]

. . ."There are times when we do know things that the ancients maybe did not. After all, they could not see a satellite image to know a hurricane was even coming . . . "However, animals seem to often have warning when a storm is coming. . . "I am glad for warnings when we get them. . ."

Speaking of hurricanes . . .
Forecasters say Hurricane Felicia is weakening a bit far out in the Pacific, but it's still a Category 4 storm. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to 135 mph. Felicia is expected to weaken over the next few days as it moves over colder water.

Felicia is centered about 1,550 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of Mexico's Baja California peninsula and about 1,490 miles east of Hilo, Hawaii. It is moving northwest near 10 mph. News has it that Felicia may hit Hawaii this Monday. Yikes!

[walter05]

Malikai;

I am attaching The National Hurricane Center Tracking cone.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_ep3+shtml/083513.shtml?5-daynl#contents

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_ep3+shtml/083513.shtml?5-daynl#contents is where you can go for all of the forecast information on Hurricane Felicia.

The television and radio stations tend to senstionalize. I have found the National Hurricane Center to be the best source for information.

Please be safe. I have helped customers through Hurricanes Katrina and Ike. Keeping your family safe is very important. Everything else is secondary.

Walter

[walter05]

And here's another thought to ponder ---

If the Mayans were so damn smart about the future, where are they today?

Who is to say that so called modern western American culture will last any longer?

I don't claim they are smarter than us. I just deny that we are smarter than them.

They knew things we don't and we know things they don't.

[maliakei]

Malikai;

I am attaching The National Hurricane Center Tracking cone.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_ep3+shtml/083513.shtml?5-daynl#contents

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_ep3+shtml/083513.shtml?5-daynl#contents is where you can go for all of the forecast information on Hurricane Felicia.

The television and radio stations tend to senstionalize. I have found the National Hurricane Center to be the best source for information.

Please be safe. I have helped customers through Hurricanes Katrina and Ike. Keeping your family safe is very important. Everything else is secondary.

Walter

Latest on hurricane -- it's nothing!

After a week of listening to news about this, the hurricane, now only a tropical storm, is going to miss the Big Island entirely.

It's mostly going on a northerly track through Maui and Oahu, and won't affect us at all.
Today was a clearer day than most, and tomorrow shouldn't be much different here. We have bigger storms in the middle of the night, that aren't even forecast.

Funny, huh, but good news.
The last few days have been pretty weather -- sunny, no wind or clouds.

[PeteINA]

Latest on hurricane -- it's nothing! Funny, huh, but good news.

Unfortunately, an attitude of "it won't happen here" prevailed in September 1992 when Hurricane Iniki slammed Kauai. Iniki caused around $1.8 billion (1992 US dollars (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_dollar)) in damage and six deaths partly due to the delay in giving residents of the islands early enough advance warning of the approaching storm. The devastation was profound and it took many years for the Garden Island to recover.

So, there's rationale in the early warnings and the no doubt constant and recent chatter on local TV concerning this now not-so-serious storm. Yes, it's good news when the storm goes another way. We may think that the media is sensationalizing and often the information presented seems to be overdone. But, in just as many situations, caution and advance preparation is better than after-the-fact grousing over what "could have been."

I was there on Kauai, September 11, 1992 ... and it was no picnic in the park. Support your local Salvation Army - they were absolutely fantastic in providing food and shelter relief following the storm, but were pushed aside by the Red Cross when they arrived a day later.

Pete

[maliakei]

Unfortunately, an attitude of "it won't happen here" prevailed in September 1992 when Hurricane Iniki slammed Kauai. Iniki caused around $1.8 billion (1992 US dollars (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_dollar)) in damage and six deaths partly due to the delay in giving residents of the islands early enough advance warning of the approaching storm. The devastation was profound and it took many years for the Garden Island to recover.

So, there's rationale in the early warnings and the no doubt constant and recent chatter on local TV concerning this now not-so-serious storm. Yes, it's good news when the storm goes another way. We may think that the media is sensationalizing and often the information presented seems to be overdone. But, in just as many situations, caution and advance preparation is better than after-the-fact grousing over what "could have been."

I was there on Kauai, September 11, 1992 ... and it was no picnic in the park. Support your local Salvation Army - they were absolutely fantastic in providing food and shelter relief following the storm, but were pushed aside by the Red Cross when they arrived a day later.

Pete

I understand about the news warnings and hear what you're saying about the media, but at the same time I believe they still have the tendency to go on and on. It's not just about Hurricane Felicia either. I sat on the edge of the seat for the past week listening to how it was first going to be a Category 4 hurricane here, then changed to a Category 1, and now nothing.. at least on the Big Island anyway. The weather has been exceptionally the nicest in a very long time so that was my report.

It certainly pays to be prepared at ALL times! Like you, I Support local Salvation Army, Red Cross, food banks year round and they are absolutely wonderful, lifesaving.

Yeah, I remember when Iniki hit Kauai. Awful. Was there on Kauai in Aug 2006, and again in Nov 2008 and can still see obvious signs of major flood damage in areas like Kilauea, Poipu, Hanalei..

Once in a while places can display some of the most extreme, unpredictable weather, even with warnings. We're constantly being reminded how humans can't control nature but nature can control us. This teaches us alot about respecting nature so never take it for granted. My prayers are with those who have been, and are being affecting by this.

[walter05]

Ever since the weather channel, broadcast television weather is too sensationalized.

Advanced warning is one thing. But the sensationalism makes it hard to pay attention too.

I remember evacuating Savannah for Hurricane Floyd. The reporters on Tybee Island were almost angry the hurricane missed.

By the way, am I the only one who wonders why any one would listen to an idiot giving a report on TV out doors during a hurricane?

[PeteINA]

Ever since the weather channel, broadcast television weather is too sensationalized. ... Advanced warning is one thing. But the sensationalism makes it hard to pay attention too.

Since we're now with news and weather stations on cable TV trying to fill the airwaves with 24x7 "stuff" is it any wonder that we hear the same messages repeated ad nauseum?

(The Cambridge Dictionary defines ad nauseum as: ... if someone discusses something ad nauseam, they talk about it so much that it becomes very boring.)

And so, that's what happens: if someone discusses something ad nauseam, they talk about it so much that it becomes very boring we get bored with the message, because we hear it repeatedly as if we didn't get it the first time. Such is the effect of cable news channels, for sure.

Pete

[Bob S.]

walt: "I remember evacuating Savannah for Hurricane Floyd. The reporters on Tybee Island were almost angry the hurricane missed."

I love hurricanes. I find it thrilling to ride out a hurricane and am upset when we don't get any here. I won't travel to try to catch a hurricane, but if one happens to come to me, I'm happy.

Bob S.

[barenaked1]

I think this is another Y2K scare - foisted upon us by people who want to sell us freeze-dried foods, gold and silver, underground storage tanks, weapons, survivalist crap.


Fear sells........

[Naturist Mark]

An article I recently ran across ...

The 6 Best 2012 Apocalypse Theories (Are All Bull****) (http://www.cracked.com/article_17445_p2.html)

[usuallylurk]

Who is to say that so called modern western American culture will last any longer?

Probably because it's been exported to all corners of the world.

I don't claim they are smarter than us. I just deny that we are smarter than them.

Fair enough! "We has faced the enemy, and it is us!" (Pogo)

[Navigator]

“It's tough to make predictions...especially about the future.” Yogi Berra
:D

[BinCo]

Fitz: I love that one. I saw these 3 parts for the 2012 predictions.

Everyone should know that if profanity offends you, don't watch this.

Part 1

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Daa_NvMxDFM

Part 2

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6dxWwhz9bpQ&feature=related

Part 3

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9_wmBNuCx5c&feature=related