The Middle East....NRA, etc and arguing....

[Bob S.]

I was going to title this Egypt, but felt like going farther since everything over there is so interconnected.

Egypt is in chaos. The next few days and weeks will determine a lot about what is going to happen with the government. While Mubarak was not the best leader they could have, especially in terms of economics, he was huge in terms of defense and military affairs. He has kept the Radical Islamsists out of power in his country and has provided a stabilizing factor in the middle east by keeping to the peace treaty with Israel.

In fact, nothing less than the (relative) peace in the middle east is at stake for with the future of Egypt. The worst thing that could happen is for a leader such as the Ayatollah to come to power in Egypt.

We also have protests in other autocratic middle east countries that could lead to more chaos and unknown futures.

I am very concerned about the future and can see a new larger war taking place in the middle east, specifically in Israel if all things go wrong. If that happens, the US would probably be dragged in and then, who knows...

Bob S.

[Kouak]

If we do get dragged in, I am sure it will be part of a peacekeeping mission with the UN.

[BinCo]

We'll get "dragged" into it when one of our allies is attacked and holds up the treaties that we and many other nations have signed to help them out. It's part of being allies and I would expect us to uphold any treaty regardless of who is in power. We signed on the dotted line and if we need to spend our treasure and lose our young than that's what happens. If it were the other way around they would help us. They might not be able to help like we can, but they can help.

What we need is a more aggresive stance against nations that destroy the heritage of the past because it disagrees with the morals of today. ie: The giant standing Buddhas in Afganistan that were very old until the Taliban blew them to bits. Maybe we learned the lesson of standing idly by when shortly after that we were attacked. As a history buff, it saddened me to see that looters had gotten into the Cairo museum and damaged atifacts and mummies.

My concerns have always centered around Isreal. They have a long history of failing to live up to treaties and continue to build on disputed territory. If a major war starts in the Middle East you can be sure Isreal will be in the middle of it.

[Naturist Mark]

I don't look upon this as necessarily a bad thing. The US has always claimed to support self-determination and democratic development, these are our ideals even if we have too often failed to fully live up to them. We might actually end up on the right side this time.

In this case I think we are doing it just about right. We are in a tough spot because we have had a long and close relationship with President Mubarak, however, it isn't really as bad as all that. The most trusted institution in Egypt is the military - which works closely with the US. The Egyptian military has announced that it will not harm peaceful protesters and implies that it will not oppose calls and movement for a change in the political order. The military has even defied the Mubarak government by calling for an end to censorship. The military is not likely to try to oppose or take over any new government, but it is likely to strongly influence any new government, and due to its popular support among the populace it will have considerable clout. And there is no doubt that the Egyptian military will try to preserve its close ties (and funding) with the US.

The uprising has been notably non religious - it is not being led by fundamentalists, and there has been a notable show of Muslim/Christian unity. The FOX news scare stories about the Muslim Brotherhood - the largest political movement in Egypt has ignored the Brotherhood's moderate positions. It is an avowed enemy of al Qaeda and long ago denounced violence. Although its conservative leanings and antipathy to Israel rightly gives pause to westerners, it is a relatively moderate voice among Islamic movements. The Islamic Brotherhood may not be our friend, but it is also not another al Qaeda. The uprising is not being driven by the Muslim Brotherhood, but it is clear that MB supported parties would have considerable influence in a more democratic Egypt.

[Bob S.]

The big fear I have with the Muslim Brotherhood is their antipathy toward Israel. This is how we would get dragged in. If they eventually decide to renege on their treaty with Israel, Israel will have enemies in the north and south with their enemies to the south having very modern weapons.

The social policies of more conservative Sharia law is also problematic as they are protesting about oppression while those policies would be even more so and radical policies do tend toward more jihadists.

Bob S.

[BinCo]

I'm glad to see how peacful this is going so far. It really reminds me of 1989 in Eastern Europe. The people want to be free, not sorta free, not semi-free, just free. I also like how they are guarding their own historic treasures. I heard an interview with Zahi today and he was weeping for how the people came to protect their treasures. Probably has something to do with tourism being a HUGE part of the economy.

[Gloria]

Just one word..............

Caliphate

[BinCo]

Just three words.........

Beck is insane.

A few more......

So is anyone who believes him.

[Naturist Mark]

Just one word..............

Caliphate

Been drinking the Kool-Aid.

Glenn Beck's insane hallucinations about the rise of a Caliphate aren't taken seriously anywhere but FOX news and its orbital blogs. Even far right wingers are calling the whole idea nuts.



The Egyptian revolution is just as much bad news for authoritarian Islamists as for dictators like Mubarak. It is not a religious movement, it is almost entirely secular (not that Islamists, and aspiring dictators, won't try to take advantage). The true predecessor of the uprising is the democracy movement in Iran that arose after the sham presidential election - which aimed to remove the oppressive theocracy that sits on top of civil government. The parallels in how the ruling regimes have responded have been eerie.

Assuming the present regime in Egypt falls, the outcome is most likely to resemble Turkey - a secular democratic state which has a conservative Islamic political party in the majority, and a strong professional military that prevents extremism.

[sdcal]

Assuming the present regime in Egypt falls, the outcome is most likely to resemble Turkey - a secular democratic state which has a conservative Islamic political party in the majority, and a strong professional military that prevents extremism.

And assuming it falls, it would likely breathe more life to those in Iran who opposed the sham elections there. It could be the beginning of the end for them also.